ARMs Hit a Record 17% of Mortgage Locks as Total Lock Volume Fell 19% in October
Key Takeaways Adjustable-rate mortgages reached 17% of all mortgage rate locks in October, up from 14% in September and the highest share in Optimal Blue data going back to 2019. Total lock volume fell 19% from September and 38% from a year earlier, and refinances shrank to just 16% of production as rate-and-term refinance volume fell 85% year over year. First-time buyers accounted for 45% of conforming purchase locks and 70% of FHA locks, while FHA share rose to 20% of all production. The conforming 30-year rate ended October at 7.15%, down 24 basis points in the month but up 99 basis points from a year earlier, and Optimal Blue forecasts 7.30% over the next month. Borrowers did not wait out high rates in October. They changed loan types instead. Optimal Blue released its October 2026 Market Advantage mortgage data report on November 10, 2026. The report is built on direct lock and secondary market data, not a survey, and its pricing platform is used to price and lock more than one-th...