United States Iran Conflict Threatens Rates and Housing
Why the Iran Conflict Is Raising Mortgage Rates Surging oil prices and bond-market stress are driving mortgage rates higher as the U.S.-Iran conflict intensifies. U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran pushed crude above $100 a barrel, reviving inflation concerns across financial markets. That geopolitical risk has reduced expectations for future rate cuts and kept Treasury yields elevated. In the UK, average two-year fixed mortgage rates have already risen from 4.84% to 5.01% as lenders respond to rate rise fears . Bond Yields React to Conflict Investors have demanded higher returns as uncertainty grows around energy supply routes and regional stability. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed from 3.96% to 4.21% within weeks, while mortgage pricing moved higher alongside it. In commercial real estate, firms like Blackstone are expanding through private debt funds as banks pull back and refinancing pressures build. Lenders also increased rate spreads to account for volatility, adding pressure to bo...