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Mortgage Applications Rose 3.4%, and the ARM Share Just Hit Its Highest in Over a Year

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Key Takeaways: Mortgage applications rose 3.4% in the week ending October 23, 2026, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, as the average 30-year fixed contract rate eased to 7.37%. The bounce is shallow: purchase applications ran 18% below last year and refinance applications 61% below. The real story is the adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share, which climbed to 11.3% of all applications, the highest level in more than a year. A small dip in rates was enough to bring some borrowers back. It was not enough to change the year-over-year picture, which still shows a market running well below last fall. A Small Bounce That Still Sits 18% Below Last Year The MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey measures loan application volume through retail and consumer direct channels, and the MBA has run it weekly since 1990. For the week ending October 23, every index rose, and every year-over-year comparison stayed deeply negative. Week ending Oct. 23, 2026 Weekly change Year over year Mark...
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Home Prices Rose 2.1% in August, but Lost Ground to Inflation for a 15th Straight Month

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Key Takeaways: U.S. home prices rose 2.1% in the year to August 2026 on the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller National Index, up from 1.9% in July, while the FHFA House Price Index rose 2.4% over the same year. Both gains trailed August inflation of 3.4%, so prices fell in real terms for a 15th straight month. The map split wide: Chicago prices rose 6.7% in a year while Seattle prices fell 2.0%. Your home can be worth more than a year ago and still be worth less. That is the story in the two big price indexes released on October 27. S&P Dow Jones Indices released the August 2026 Case-Shiller results that day, and the Federal Housing Finance Agency released its August House Price Index the same morning. Read together, they agree on the direction and disagree only on the size. Two Indexes, One Message: Prices Up on Paper, Down After Inflation The FHFA release tracks single-family values using purchase-only data from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and a weighted repeat-sales method. Case-Shi...
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Goldman Sachs Sees Just 3.9 Million Home Sales in 2027, and No Thaw in Sight

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Key Takeaways: Goldman Sachs Research forecasts just 3.9 million existing-home sales in 2027, modestly below its 4 million forecast for 2026 and 26% below 2019 levels, with home price growth slowing to 0.8%. The reason is lock-in: more than 95% of mortgage borrowers hold rates below today's market rate, and 65% sit at least two percentage points below it. Even Goldman's own rate relief, down to 6.4% in 2027, leaves affordability at historically poor levels. If you are waiting for 2027 to rescue the housing market, Goldman Sachs has bad news. Its outlook, published October 30, says rising mortgage rates are likely to outweigh the longstanding housing shortage next year. The result, economists Ronnie Walker and David Mericle write, is a drop in both the sales of existing homes and the construction of new ones. This is a forecast, not a fact about the future, but it is the clearest big-bank read on 2027 that investors have right now. The Forecast: Fewer Sales, Slower Prices, Still...
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Home Prices Rose 1.7% in September, but Slipped From August

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Key Takeaways: U.S. single-family home prices rose 1.7% in September 2026 from a year earlier, but fell 0.3% from August, according to the Cotality Home Price Index released November 3. Cotality forecasts annual growth will slow to 0.9% by September 2027. The national number hides a split map: Illinois prices rose 6.9% in a year while Washington prices fell 1.0%, so where a home sits now matters more than the national average. Home prices are still rising. They are just rising more slowly, and in some states they are not rising at all. Cotality, a property information and analytics firm, released its Home Price Index for September 2026 on November 3. The index is built on repeat-sales transactions, the same homes selling again over time. Up for the Year, Down for the Month, and Slowing Ahead The Cotality release puts the national median price above $400,000. It does not give an exact median figure, so treat any exact number you see elsewhere with care. September 2026 Cotality reading ...
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Rent Growth Just Turned Positive for the First Time in Over 3 Years

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Key Takeaways: The national median rent reached $1,384 in October 2026, up 0.1% from a year earlier, the first positive annual reading since mid-2023, according to Apartment List. Vacancy eased to 7.0% from a 7.3% peak in February. The catch for landlords is that 32% of properties are still offering a month or more of free rent, so the headline rent and the rent you actually collect are two different numbers right now. Rents did not jump. They turned. After more than three years of annual declines, national rent growth flipped positive in October, and it did so by the smallest possible margin, up just $1 from a year earlier. That tiny move carries a big signal for beginner landlords, as long as you read the whole report and not just the headline. The Turn: Rents Up $1, Vacancy Down From Its Peak Apartment List's national rent report puts the October median at $1,384 a month. One-bedroom units sit at $1,215 and two-bedroom units at $1,369. Year-over-year growth bottomed at -1.6% in...
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Mortgage Rates Fell Again to 7.24%, Their Lowest Level in October

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Key Takeaways: Freddie Mac's weekly survey put the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 7.24% for the week ending October 29, 2026, a second straight weekly decline from a 7.40% peak and the lowest reading of the month. The 15-year fixed fell to 6.60%. Rates are still more than a full point above last year's 6.17%, so this is modest relief, not a rescue, and a deal still has to work at today's borrowing costs. Mortgage rates just gave buyers their second small break in a row. After climbing for most of the fall, the average 30-year fixed rate has now eased two weeks straight, and it did so in the same week the Federal Reserve decided to sit still. For beginner investors, the question is not whether 7.24% is a good rate. It is what a move this size actually changes, and what it does not. Two Weeks Down, and the Lowest Reading of the Month Freddie Mac reported that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 7.24% as of October 29, 2026, down from 7.32% the week before. Two w...
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Home Prices Rose in 78% of Metros in Q3, Even as Sales Stalled

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Key Takeaways: Home prices rose in 78% of U.S. metro areas in the third quarter of 2026, and the national median existing single-family price climbed 1.7% from a year earlier to $432,900, according to the National Association of Realtors. The Northeast led, the Midwest followed, and the West was the only region where prices fell. For beginner investors, stubborn prices in a slow market mean the deal has to work at today's payment, not at a hoped-for crash price. Sales are slow. Buyers are stretched. And prices, in most of the country, went up anyway. That is the puzzle in the newest quarterly metro report, and it matters more than any single headline number. If you were waiting for weak demand to hand you a cheap house, the third quarter did not deliver it. The Numbers: Prices Up Almost Everywhere, Growth Slowing at the Edges The National Association of Realtors reported that prices rose in 78% of the roughly 235 metro areas it tracks in the third quarter of 2026. That share was d...
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