Texas Housing Darling Cools Fast, Sales Momentum Breaks
Is the Texas Housing Market Cooling or Normalizing? How quickly conditions have shifted is now visible across Texas metro areas. Values have fallen from 2022 to 2025 in Austin, San Antonio, Dallas, and parts of Houston. In Austin, the typical value fell about 24 percent. It dropped from roughly $553,000 to $420,000, resetting affordability. In Dallas-Fort Worth, a sharp inventory surge has tilted negotiations toward buyers as more deals close below list price. Disruption Signals in Pricing and Demand Rates, lock in, and sentiment High interest rates and the lock in effect are constraining existing-home listings and transactions. TRERC expects 30-year mortgage rates to ease to 5%–5.6% by December 2026. Weaker buyer sentiment and slower migration patterns are limiting the pool of move up and first time buyers. Inventory and concessions Builders carried inventory longer in 2025. That expanded incentives and compressed margins. Price cutting has offset inventory growth. Real prices only ...