United States Sun Belt Boom Ends, Midwest Wins
Is the Midwest Beating the Sun Belt? Comparing the two regions shows the Midwest is not overtaking the Sun Belt on the broadest measures. Population dynamics still favor the South. S&P Global said the South grew 1.4% year over year through Q2 2024, versus 0.6% for the Midwest. Migration patterns reinforce that Sun Belt dominance , with 14 of the top 15 large metros for net domestic in-migration located in the Southeast from the Carolinas to Northwest Arkansas. By late 2025, both regions are expected to slow, but the Midwest still trails. At the same time, 2025 real estate conditions were shaped by tight inventory and lock-in effects that complicated regional comparisons. Economic divergence remains clear Economic divergence also cuts against a broad Midwest victory. Visa said the Midwest lagged every other U.S. region in Q2 2025 and is expected to be the only region with slower growth in 2026. S&P Global likewise projected the South would lead job growth again. The evidence su...