Florida Snowbirds Try to Sell, Listings Jam

Why Is Florida Housing Inventory Rising in 2025–2026?

As Florida’s resale pipeline loosens under stubborn borrowing costs and longer marketing times, inventory has begun to stack up heading into 2026.

Realtor.com defines active listings as the monthly count of for-sale single-family and condo/townhome homes, excluding pending properties.

Active listings stayed elevated, ending November 2025 at 163,059 after a July peak of 174,584.

More than half of listed homes are now sitting unsold over 60 days, underscoring how higher rates are cooling demand.

Supply Swells Ahead of Peak Season

Seasonal migration is colliding with slower turnover.

Median days on market reached 80 in November, while months of supply averaged 7, near balance despite a 4.9 statewide reading.

New construction continues to add options as demand recalibrates.

Newly listed homes fell 14.4% YoY in November to 35,716.

Pending sales rose and prices slipped 0.95% to $405,400, widening buyer leverage into 2026.

Active listings were up 3.6% YoY, yet November sales reached 24,399.

Rates near 6% in 2026 could open up listings.

Is Florida Inventory Worse in Condos Than Single-Family?

Why the inventory divide matters is becoming clearer across Florida’s resale market.

Condo supply is far looser than single family.

In Denver, an inventory surge nearly doubled active condo listings year-over-year, lengthening marketing times and pressuring prices.

Gap widens as 2026 nears.

Nationally, inventory is moving toward balance with 4.6 months of supply in 2026.

Condos clog the pipeline

Southeast Florida condos are projected at 12 months of supply in 2026, versus 5.1 months for single family.

Florida condo and townhome inventory stays above 9 months, with 163,059 active listings in November 2025.

Houses hold balance, condos face added drag

Single family sits near 5 to 5.3 months.

Condos show softer turnover and a 5% median price drop to $299K in September 2025.

HOA dynamics and building age raise scrutiny and costs.

1. Longer marketing windows.
2. Some 10% discounts on million dollar condos.
3. Lee County condo listings down 11%.

Are Florida Home Prices Falling: and Where Most?

Condo-heavy inventory is already forcing sharper negotiation.

The same pressure is now showing up in Florida’s price data.

Statewide, the single-family median hit $411,105 in October 2025, down 0.9% year over year.

Listing prices fell 6% statewide.

Condo and townhome median prices fell 5% to $299K in September.

Price per square foot is down 9.3% over two years.

Gulf Decline Concentrates Risk

Cape Coral is projected to drop 10.2% in 2026.

North Port is forecast down 8.9%.

Tampa is projected down 3.6%, signaling a broad Gulf Decline.

Miami Resilience Defies the Slide

Florida’s eight largest metros average a 1.9% decline in 2026.

That compares with 2.2% national growth.

Miami alone is projected up 1.1%.

This reinforces Miami Resilience amid higher rates near 6.2% and rising insurance costs.

Miami’s market liquidity is also supported by 43% cash buyers, which can help cushion prices even as inventory rises.

Does Negative Equity Mean More Florida Foreclosures?

While Florida’s price cooling remains uneven, negative equity is rising to levels that put foreclosure risk on the table in select markets.

Nationally, 2.2% of owners were underwater in Q3 2025, up 21% to 1.2 million properties.

Foreclosure Pressure Builds in Vulnerable Florida Metros

Florida carries 16% of mortgage debt overhang, concentrating downside when prices slip.

Cape Coral posted Q3 2025 foreclosure rates as costs surged and values fell 7.1% year over year.

In Cape Coral, homes for sale climbed to 12,892, driving 7.3 months supply and further eroding seller leverage.

Lender practices, including tolerance for minimal down payments and piggyback loans, can amplify losses after corrections.

Strategic defaults become more plausible where insurance premiums reach a 2.2% premium to market ratio and hurricanes disrupt flow.

1. Price drops erode equity.
2. Rising rates suppress refinancing.
3. Expense shocks trigger delinquencies.

How Do You Sell in Florida When Listings Pile Up?

How selling still clears in Florida now depends on speed, pricing discipline, and concessions as inventory swells and buyer leverage hardens.

In Miami condos, months supply has climbed to 14.1 months, underscoring how firmly conditions have shifted toward buyers.

Listing prices are down 6% since 2023, and condos show over nine months of supply.

Pricing Cuts Hit Fast

Condo listings face compression, with values per square foot down 9.3% in two years.

Listings are down 10.8% year over year.

Serious sellers reset early to beat 45 to 50 day windows.

This helps avoid rage quitting.

Demand Gets Filtered, Not Created

With investor buying down 50% to 70% in major metros, qualified owner-occupant demand must be isolated.

Use targeted marketing and underwriting signals to identify real buyers.

Virtual staging helps listings compete.

Clear insurance and HOA disclosures reduce friction.

Small closing cost credits can move hesitant buyers.

This matters as 2026 prices slip 1.9%.

Assessment

Florida’s resale market is entering a high-friction phase as seasonal owners exit into crowded inventory.

Condo listings remain the main pressure point. Insurance costs, special assessments, and financing limits are compounding discounting.

Single-family supply is also rising, but pricing is steadier in stronger job corridors.

Negative equity is not yet widespread, which limits forced sales. Delinquency risk is rising in areas where values are slipping.

Successful dispositions increasingly depend on sharp pricing, a clean inspection posture, and fast closing certainty nationwide.

https://www.unitedstatesrealestateinvestor.com/florida-snowbirds-try-to-sell-listings-jam/?fsp_sid=27244